EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF recovered further last week started to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.0811 low are seen as a consolidation pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1065) to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0863 will target 1.0811 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

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