EUR/CHF’s down trend continued last week and accelerated to as low as 1.0567. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0481. On the upside, break of 1.0694 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the downside from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next focus is 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1037) maintains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume the down trend from 1.2004 to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650.
