Sat, Jun 10, 2023 @ 22:14 GMT

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF rose further to 1.0513 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.0360 will suggest that rebound from 0.9970 has completed as a three-wave corrective move at 1.0513. That came after rejection by 100% projection of 0.9970 to 1.0086 from 1.0400 at 1.0516 and 1.0505. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0186 support first. On the upside, however, sustained break of 1.0505 long term resistance will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.0782.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0876).

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