EUR/CHF stayed in range above 0.9844 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9832, to complete the corrective pattern from 1.0095. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9923 should turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 1.0067/0095 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, with 0.9832 support intact, rise from 0.9407 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0095 and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0021) will be a medium term bullish signal, and bring further rally to 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484). However, firm break of 0.9832 support will revive medium term bearishness and bring retest of 0.9407 low instead.
In the long term picture, it’s still way to early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 month EMA and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low).
