EUR/CHF’s extended decline last week argues that rebound from 0.9704 might have completed at 0.9995 already. More importantly, the corrective pattern from 1.0095 might be extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline is expected this week as long as 0.9889 resistance holds, towards 0.9704 support. On the upside, though, break of 0.9889 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9989) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).
In the long term picture, it’s still way too early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 M EMA and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). The multi-decade down trend could still continue.
