EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF’s choppy decline from 0.9995 extended lower last week. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 0.9074 support. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Break of 0.9847 will argue that the fall has completed and turn bias back to the downside. However, firm break of 0.9704 will resume the whole decline from 1.0095 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9963). Down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

In the long term picture, it’s still way too early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0515) and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). The multi-decade down trend could still continue.

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