EUR/CHF’s strong rebound last week argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.9513, on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for further rally to 38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9513 at 0.9735. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9873. On the downside, however, below 0.9602 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as the cross is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9809). That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) could still resume through 0.9407 (2022 low). However, sustained trading above the 55 W EMA will raise the chance that 0.9470 is already a long term bottom. Further rise would then be seen to 1.0095 resistance to indicate bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0391). Break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, or the multi-decade down trend is expected to continue.
