EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF edged higher to 0.9630 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.9510 support holds, further rally is still expected. On the upside, break of 0.9630 will resume the rise from 0.9252 and target 161.8% projection of 0.9252 to 0.9471 from 0.9304 at 0.9658 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.9510 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9683 resistance holds, rebound from 0.9252 are seen as a corrective move only. Larger down trend is expected to resume through 0.9252 after the correction completes. However, firm break of 0.9683 and sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9620) will argue that 0.9252 is already a medium term bottom. Stronger rise would then be seen 61.8% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9773 and above.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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