EUR/CHF rebounded strongly after initial dive to 0.9209 last week. But upside is limited by 0.9476 support turned resistance so far. Near term outlook remains bearish for now. On the downside, break of 0.9354 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9209 low first. On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.9476 will turn bias to the upside for strong rise back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.9606).
In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 0.9928 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
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