EUR/CHF’s strong rally and decisive break of 0.9434 resistance last week confirmed resumption of the rebound from 0.9204. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9204 to 0.9343 from 0.9254 at 0.9393. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.9444 resistance to 161.8% projection at 0.9479. On the downside, below 0.9335 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.9254 support holds.
In the bigger picture, the break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9359) suggests that a medium term bottom might be in place already. Strong rise could be seen 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481. Reaction from there would reveal whether rebound from 0.9204 is merely a corrective rise, or reversing the down trend from 0.9928.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
