EUR/CHF stayed in consolidation below 0.9444 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rebound from 0.9204 is seen as a corrective move and could extend above 0.9440 But upside should be limited by 0.9481 fibonacci resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.9336 support will argue that the correction has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9284 support first.
In the bigger picture, while corrective rebound from 0.9204 might extend higher, strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481 to limit upside. Down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in favor to resume through 0.9204/9 support zone at a later stage.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
