EUR/CHF surged to as high as 0.9426 last week but turned sideway just ahead of 0.9428 resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Current development argues that corrective pattern from 0.9445 has completed with three waves down to 0.9265. Firm break of 0.9428 should confirm this bullish case, and target 0.9445 and then 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9357) with extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside position should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9855) holds.
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