Last week’s sharp decline argues that rebound from 0.8655 has completed at 0.9101, after failing to sustain above 0.9098 resistance. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week with focus on 0.8927 support. Break will confirm near term reversal and target 61.8% retracement of 0.8655 to 0.9101 at 0.8825 and below. On the upside, break of 0.9101 resistance is needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stays on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). The medium term range is set between 0.8620 and 0.9101. Downside break out of 0.9620 will pave the way back to 0.8302/12 support zone. Break of 0.9101 will bring retest of 0.9304/5 resistance.

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In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.

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