EUR/GBP’s fall last week argues that recovery from 0.8745 has completed at 0.9032 already. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for retesting 0.8745 first. Break there will resume whole fall from 0.9305 and target 0.8303 key support level. On the upside, above 0.8956 minor resistance will extend the corrective rise from 0.8745 with another rise. But upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8745 at 0.9091 to bring fall resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of another fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 (2008 high) is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935 (2015 low). Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the correction from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
