EUR/GBP stayed in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.8654 will resume the fall from 0.8750. Decisive break there will indicate bearish reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8750 at 0.8548. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 0.8750/2 will resume the rise from 0.8221 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 0.8631 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8549) will confirm, and bring retest of 0.8221 low.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
