EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8967 last week but subsequent fall dampened the bullish view. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 0.8771 support. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 0.8686 and target a retest of this low. On the upside, break of 0.8967 will resume the rebound from 0.8686 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8686 at 0.9069.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
