EUR/JPY recovered to 126.78 last week but dropped sharply since then. Break of 124.27 support firstly indicates resumption of fall from 127.50. Secondly it argues that rebound from 118.62 might be completed. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 118.62 to 127.50 at 122.01. On the upside, above 125.08 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 118.62 might have completed earlier than expected at 127.50. EUR/JPY is held well inside medium term falling channel, and below 55 week EMA (now at 127.86). That is, the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) might still be in progress. Break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. On the upside, however, break of 127.50 will extend the rebound from 118.62 to 133.12 key resistance instead.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. Break of 118.62 will extend this falling leg through 109.03 low. On the upside, break of 133.12 resistance bring retest of 149.76 (2014 high).
