EUR/JPY rose to as high as 125.02 last week and broke 124.43 resistance as rose from 114.42 finally resumed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 114.42 to 124.43 from 119.31 at 125.49. Break will pave the way to 100% projection at 129.32. On the downside, break of 123.01 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.59 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 121.32) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 124.54) should confirm the start of another medium term rising leg.
