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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY edged lower to 125.07 last week but recovered, after failing to sustain below 38.2% retracement of 121.63 to 127.48 at 125.24. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside this week for retesting 127.48 high. On the downside, however, break of 125.07 will resume the corrective fall. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 61.8% retracement at 123.86 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 121.63 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67. Sustained trading above there will target 137.49 next. However, firm break of 121.63 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg could have started for 137.49 resistance and above.

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