EUR/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 125.06 last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 121.94 medium term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 127.28 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole rise from 114.42 (2020 low) has completed 134.11 already. Fall from there is developing into a medium term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94. On the upside, firm break of 127.36 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Long term outlook will remain neutral until breakout from the range of 109.03/137.49.
