EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s decline from 145.62 accelerated lower last week. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week with focus on 138.38 support turned resistance. Firm break there will raise the chance of larger reversal and target 133.38 support next. On the upside, break of 142.28 will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 145.62 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 133.38 support holds, the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still extend through 145.62 high. In that case, next target 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 133.38 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 124.37 support first.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 129.30) holds, up trend 109.03 should still extend higher to 149.76 resistance (2014 high). However, sustained break of 55 month EMA will argue that the three wave pattern has completed, and bring deeper fall back to 109.03/114.42 support zone.

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