EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s decline from 148.38 resumed last week and hit as low as 140.75. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 148.38 to 142.54 from 146.12 at 140.28. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 136.67 next. On the upside, above 143.12 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further decline will remain in favor as long as 146.12 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, 148.38 could be a medium term top already. Fall from there is probably correcting whole up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 137.37), or further to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40 before completion.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds (2021 high). Sustained break of 149.76 (2014 high) will open up further rally, as resumption of the rise from 94.11 (2012 low), towards 169.96 (2008 high).

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