EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s strong rebound from 153.32 last week argues that pull back from 157.99 has completed already. Initial bias is now mildly on the upside this week for retesting 157.99 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, break of 153.32 will extend the pull back from 157.99 to 55 D EMA (now at 152.38) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.60 resistance turned support holds, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 162.82. Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.60 will argue that larger correction is already underway.

In the long term picture, rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68, and possibly further to 169.96 (2008 high).

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