EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

Despite dipping to 169.05 last week, EUR/JPY quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Break of 170.78 will resume the rally from 164.01 to retest 171.58 high. On the downside, however, below 169.05 will bring deeper fall to 167.31 support. Firm break there should confirm that rise from 164.01 has completed.

In the bigger picture, a medium top could be formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). But as long as 55 W EMA (now at 159.15) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. That is, larger up trend remains in favor to continue. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 was already met but there is no signal of reversal yet. Firm break of 170.07 will target 138.2% projection at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 153.15 support holds.

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