EUR/JPY’s rebound from 161.06 continued last week and breached 165.19 resistance. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Further rally would be seen to 166.67 resistance, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.77 at 167.38. For now, near term outlook will stay mildly bullish as long as 162.87 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 150.44).
