EUR/JPY edged higher to 173.88 last week, but was rejected by 173.87 resistance and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 173.87/8 will resume the rally from 154.77 to retest 175.41 high. However, break of 172.11 will extend the corrective pattern from 173.87 with another fall. Bias will be back to the downside for 171.09 support first.
In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 will delay this bullish case, and probably extend the correction from 175.41 with another fall.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32.
