EUR/JPY’s extended rebound last week argues that price actions from 186.86 are forming a near term consolidation pattern only. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Below 184.26 support will bring another fall. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 172.24 to 186.86 at 181.27 to bring rebound. ON the upside, decisive break of 186.86 will resume larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in D MACD. But there is not clear sign of topping yet. On resumption, next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 194.88 next. Meanwhile, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 173.80) holds, even in case of deep pullback.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.
