EUR/JPY’s extended rise last suggests that correction from 186.86 has completed with three waves down to 180.78 already. But as a temporary top was formed at 184.75, initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. On the upside, break of 184.75 will target 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 172.24 to 186.86 from 180.78 at 189.81. Overall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 172.24 to 186.86 at 181.27, in case of deep retreat.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 186.86 are merely a near term corrective pattern. In other words, the long term up trend is still in progress. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 180.78 support holds.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.
