EUR/JPY reversed after edging higher to 186.30 last week, but failed to break through 183.95 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 183.95 will argue that rebound from 182.01 has completed, and bring deeper fall back to this support. Nevertheless, break of 186.30 will resume the rise to retest 187.93 high instead.
In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.23) will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 178.98) holds.
