EUR/JPY dropped to as log as 130.29 last week. The development should now confirm medium term topping at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias is remains on the downside for 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 133.05 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern. established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.
