EUR/USD’s recovery was limited at 1.1499 last week, below falling 55 day EMA, and dropped sharply since then. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.1300 low. Decisive break there will resume the whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, though, break of 1.1499 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for another rebound. But after all, price actions from 1.1300 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. So, down trend resumption would just be delayed.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1300 is seen as a corrective pattern. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. In case the consolidation from 1.1300 extends, upside should be limited by 1.1814 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. to bring down trend resumption eventually.

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In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

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