EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1472 last week but failed to take out 1.1499 resistance and reversed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.1215 low fist. Break there will resume larger down trend for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1421 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1499 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

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In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low.

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