Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1264; (P) 1.1306; (R1) 1.1329; More……

EUR/USD drops notably lower today and is now pressing 4 hour 55 EMA. But downside is so far contained above 1.1251 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 1.1347 will target 1.1448 key resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 1.1251 minor support will suggest that recovery from 1.1107 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1107 low.

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In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1107, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Decisive break of 1.1448 resistance would confirm this case. And stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. At this point, it’s early to judge whether rise from 1.1107 is a corrective move or the start of an medium term up trend. We’d look at the structure of the rebound to decide later. But in any case, for now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.1107 low holds.


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