EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.0963 last week and break of 1.1026 confirms down trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Next near term target is 100% projection of 1.1412 to 1.1026 from 1.1249 at 1.0683. On the upside, above 1.1049 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress and extending. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1629) holds.

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