EUR/USD breached 1.0926 low to 1.0904 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first and some more consolidations could be seen. But upside of recovery should be limited below 1.1109 resistance. Medium term down trend from 1.2555 should be resuming. Break of 1.0904 will target 1.0813 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is in progress. Prior rejection of 55 week EMA also maintained bearishness. Further fall should be seen to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Decisive break there will target 1.0339 (2017 low). On the upside, break of 1.1412 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now. EUR/USD is held below decade long trend line that started from 1.6039 (2008 high). It was also rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 before. A break of 1.0039 low will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.1604) holds.
