EUR/USD surged to as high as 1.1658 last week as rise from 1.0635 extended. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1816. On the downside, below 1.1581 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But retreat should be contained by 1.1422 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.1496 resistance now suggests that whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 should be the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1168 support holds.
In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1777). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.
