EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1916 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.1695 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1916 will target will extend larger rally from 1.0635 to 161.8% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1255 at 1.2303. However, firm break of 1.1695 should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to wards 1.1422 resistance turned support.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise form 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1748). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.