Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1830; (P) 1.1878; (R1) 1.1907; More…
A temporary low is formed at 1.1846 in EUR/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2032) holds. Fall from 1.2265 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348. On the downside, below 1.1846 will target 1.1703 support next. However, sustained break of the 4 hour 55 EMA will bring stronger rise back to 1.2265 resistance.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.
