EUR/USD’s late decline last week suggests that corrective recovery from 1.0348 has completed at 1.0786, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.0348 and 1.0339 long term support. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.0641 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case. Rise from 1.0348 is at least a correction to the down trend from 1.2348. Stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.0348 at 1.1112.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is ready to resume. Break of 1.0339 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. Decisive break there could bring downside acceleration towards 100% projection at 0.8694.
