EUR/USD’s down trend resumed last week and met 100% projection of 1.0368 to 0.9863 from 1.0197 at 0.9692 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 161.8% projection at 0.9380. On the upside, above 0.9806 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, break of 1.0197 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even with strong rebound.
In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is extending. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds.
