EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0964 last week, but failed to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.0823 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest 1.1274 high. However, firm break of 1.0823 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1081) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
