EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1213 extended to as low as 1.0899 last week, but lost momentum after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0920. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1036 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.0920 will argue that fall from 1.1213 is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0740 next.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.1274 resistance suggests that corrective pattern from 1.1274 (2023 high) is not completed yet. Instead, decline from 1.1213 might be another falling leg. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0877) will validate this case, and bring deeper fall towards 1.0447 support again.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). But for now, EUR/USD is struggling to sustain above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1018). Outlook is neutral at best at this point.
