EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1213 resumed to 1.0681 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidations could be seen. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds. Below 1.0681 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0760 from 1.0936 at 1.0656, and then 100% projection at 1.0483.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 (2023 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low), with fall from 1.1213 as the third leg. Downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404, to bring up trend resumption at a later stage.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). But for now, EUR/USD is struggling to sustain above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1011). Outlook is neutral at best at this point.
