EUR/USD’s rally from 1.0176 resumed last week and spiked higher to 1.1145. But a temporary top was formed there with subsequent retreat. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1145 at 1.0775 to bring rebound. Above 1.1145 will target 1.1213/74 key resistance zone next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through the multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0731 support holds.
In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1350) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will keep outlook bearish.
