GBP/JPY’s strong rebound last week argues that correction from 156.06 has completed at 151.28 already. But since a temporary top was formed at 155.13, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 155.13 will bring retest of 156.05 high. Nevertheless, break of 153.07 minor support will extend the corrective pattern with another fall to 151.28 and below. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 136.96 to 156.05 at 148.75 to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus is now on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, break of 149.03 support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.
In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).
