GBP/JPY’s consolidation from 164.61 extended last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further rise is expected with 158.04 support intact. On the upside, break of 164.61 will resume larger up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, firm break of 158.19 will turn bias to the downside and bring deeper pull back.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress, and notable support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93. Sustained break there will be a long term bullish signal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds.
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 148.20) holds, we’d still favor more rally to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. Sustained break there will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).
