GBP/JPY’s rise from 148.93 resumed last week and initial bias stays on the upside this week for 169.10 resistance. Firm break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 165.69 from 159.71 at 170.06, and then 100% projection at 176.47. On the downside, break of 159.71 support will extend the corrective pattern from 169.10 with another falling leg.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will pave the way to retest 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.18) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).
