GBP/JPY rose to as high as 170.07 last week, and met 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 165.69 from 159.71 at 170.06. But subsequent retreat indicates it has already turned into consolidation. initial bias is neutral this week first. Downside should be contained above 159.71 support to bring another rally. Break of 170.07, and sustained trading above 169.10 will confirm larger up trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will pave the way to retest 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.93 support holds.
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.18) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).
