GBP/JPY gyrated lower last week but stays above 163.02. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 163.02. Decisive break there will resume the whole fall from 172.11, and target 100% projection of 172.11 to 163.02 from 168.99 at 159.90. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 167.40 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, medium term upside momentum has been diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 160.66) will argue that it’s already correcting whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Nevertheless, before that, such up trend could still extend through 172.11 high.
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 151.94) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage. Next target is 195.86 (2015 high).