GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY edged higher to 161.22 last week but failed to break through 162.32 resistance and reversed. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 155.33 support first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 172.11 to 153.70 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 158.09 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 161.22 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 163.02 support turned resistance holds, decline from 172.11 medium term top is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 172.11 at 153.70. Sustained break there will raise the change of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 142.34. Nevertheless, break of 163.02 support turned resistance will argue that the decline has completed, and retain medium term bullishness.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 152.38) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage.

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